Democrats rebound, and Senate races tighten in Colorado, elsewhere

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DENVER — For months, Republican Ken Buck held a clear edge in his bid to win a key U.S. Senate seat away from the Democrats in Colorado.

Now, in the final days of the campaign, Buck was on
the defensive as he met with a friendly group of Republican
businesswomen in a Denver office building on a crisp autumn evening.

“I’m not taking your birth control. I’m not taking your Social Security.
I’m not taking your student loans,” he said. “If I was the person in
that commercial, I wouldn’t vote for that guy. It’s the most ridiculous
thing I’ve ever seen.”

Ridiculous or not, Buck’s once-solid lead over Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is shrinking. As in several other Senate races around the country, Democrats here are cranking up President Barack Obama’s get-out-the-vote machinery from 2008, working to paint the Republicans
as extreme, energizing some of their own base voters and drawing closer
in polls.

The result is that in a handful of states — Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania and West Virginia — the Democrats now have at least a fighting chance to hold Senate seats that looked lost in September. If they succeed, they greatly increase their odds of retaining control of the Senate, even as they still appear likely to lose control of the House of Representatives.

“It now appears that the long advantage that the Republicans and Mr. Buck had has dissipated,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver pollster.

There are two key reasons, Ciruli said. First, the
Democrats are targeting messages to women on issues such as abortion
and rape, and to older women on Social Security. “The base is coming together, and they’re probably picking up some unaffiliated voters,” he said.

Second, Ciruli said, Buck has made controversial
comments on social issues, such as likening homosexuality to
alcoholism, providing a target for Democrats and deflecting attention
from his successful attacks on the Democratic economic agenda in Washington.
“He made some serious faux pas,” Ciruli said, “getting into social
issues and reinforcing the Democratic message that he’s too extreme.”

Buck, a county prosecutor, won the Republican Senate
nomination by tapping into a grass-roots, tea party-inspired backlash
against the political establishment. He surged to a lead over Bennet by
indicting the Obama-Democratic agenda on such things as soaring federal
spending and debt, bailouts for Wall Street and the sweeping new health care law.

The message appealed to Lucy Tucker,
a Democrat who voted for Obama in 2008. Laid off from her job as a
nurse practitioner, she sees nothing in all the federal spending that’s
helping her.

“I don’t like Michael Bennet,” she
said of the incumbent appointed two years ago to fill a vacant seat,
who’s now seeking a full term. “Take the stimulus. What has it changed?
I read that we’re getting money, but I’m not sure where it’s going.”

Two years after he was nominated in Denver, a year after he signed the economic stimulus bill in Denver, Obama is deeply unpopular in Colorado.
Just 39 percent approve of the way he’s doing his job, while 56 percent
turn thumbs down, according to a recent McClatchy Newspapers-Marist
poll.

With energetic support from conservatives and swing
voters, Buck led by a solid 8-point margin weeks ago, 50-42 percent in
a McClatchy-Marist survey.

Then the Democratic campaign kicked into gear just as ballots were mailed for the start of early voting, which began Monday.

First, the Democrats turned to a massive voter file
built over five years with records from every election in the state,
from city council races to the 2008 presidential election.

“We’re watching every single ballot as it gets reported so we know who’s voted and who hasn’t,” said Pat Waak, the chairwoman of the Colorado Democratic Party.

Then they turned to their list of volunteers, also built over the years and boosted by such things as sign-up cards at Invesco Field at Mile High when Obama gave his nomination acceptance speech there, and at a recent rally when Bill Clinton spoke. Those volunteers write e-mails, knock on doors and call anyone
thought to be a Democratic voter who hasn’t yet mailed in his or her
ballot.

Although Obama isn’t scheduled to appear in the state — he hasn’t been here since before the August primary — he and the White House are working to rally core Democratic voters across the country, such as minorities, women and the young.

Among the White House efforts:

—Reaching out to African-Americans in interviews with African-American radio stations and newspapers.

—Meeting with Hispanic media and staging a White House ceremony to highlight an Obama push for better educational opportunities for Hispanics.

—Releasing an official National Economic Council report on how the administration’s policies are helping women, underscored in TV appearances by top aide Valerie Jarrett.

—Taping an interview with “The Daily Show’s” Jon Stewart to air before the election. “It’s a great way to appeal to a younger
voter audience that is a big part of the president’s base,” White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said.

In Colorado, Democrats are hitting Buck on social issues, including the comment on NBC Oct. 17 likening homosexuality to alcoholism.

To someone such as Deborah Stone, a small-business owner from Denver
who has a gay son, that was enough to turn her opposition to Buck into
aggressive work to defeat him. She’s contacting friends to urge them to
vote against Buck.

“It had a great impact on me,” Stone said. “I do
think it has changed the tide. Buck was ahead. Now Bennet is within the
margin of error, and I do think Bennet will pull ahead.”

At his appearance with the businesswomen, Buck said
the Democrats were trying to steer attention away from such issues as
the economy and federal spending, and that he’d stick to an economic
agenda in the Senate.

“They don’t want to talk about health care. They
don’t want to talk about the stimulus. They don’t want to talk about
bailing out auto companies. … They’re doing the same thing in every
state. They’re trying to tighten these races up,” he said.

As soon as he invited questions, Buck used the
opportunity to address whether he’s anti-gay. He stressed his work
prosecuting as a hate crime the murder of a transgender 18-year-old in Greeley, the first such prosecution in the United States. “We prosecuted the heck out of that as a hate crime,” he said. “The conclusion is, Ken Buck is willing to do the right thing.

“We’re not going to change Roe versus Wade,” he assured the Republican women. “But if we don’t change $13 trillion in debt, we’re in serious trouble. … We’re not going to be debating birth control anytime soon on the Senate floor. We are going to have to deal with spending.”

Buck acknowledged that he’s paid a price, but he thinks that his economic message will get through in the final days.

“He froze our numbers with those commercials,” he said. “Well, they’re not frozen anymore.”

He added in an interview, “Everything tightens at the end, but not enough for them to pull ahead.”

Colorado Republican Party Chairman Dick Wadhams, a veteran of several close Senate
races around the country, said: “He has made some mistakes. Some
Democrats may be coming home, but the fundamentals of this race remain
the same.”

Bennet, who’s never run for public office, refused requests for an interview, as he did during his primary campaign.

Both camps — and their allies in outside groups — are talking through television ads. Outside groups have poured money into Colorado to influence the Senate race, spending more there so far than in any other state, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

The majority of the $27 million they’ve spent has bought negative ads, with $8.3 million in ads slamming Democrats and $7.9 million in ads attacking Republicans.

Regardless of what happens on the airwaves,
Republicans aren’t ceding the get-out-the-vote drive to the Democrats.
They have an edge in the number of early ballots requested: 557,000 for
registered Republicans and 504,000 for registered Democrats.

“We’re in Election Day right now,” Wadhams said.

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(c) 2010, McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Visit the McClatchy Washington Bureau on the World Wide Web at www.mcclatchydc.com.

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